Television has long been a cornerstone of mass communication, but the way audiences engage with it has undergone a seismic shift in recent years. Traditional linear TV, with its scheduled broadcasts and live programming, once commanded undivided attention across households. Yet, as of early 2025, connected TV—or CTV—has surged ahead, capturing nearly 44 percent of total TV viewing time in the United States alone. This isn’t merely a trend; it’s a fundamental reconfiguration driven by on-demand access through smart TVs, streaming devices, and apps. Advertisers, caught in this transition, must grapple with models that once seemed immutable. Linear TV offers the familiarity of broad, simultaneous exposure, while CTV promises the precision of digital-like targeting within a living-room setting. To determine which reigns supreme, we need to peel back the layers of data revealing how these platforms perform in reach, engagement, and ultimately, return on investment.
Consider the raw numbers: In 2024, CTV ad spending topped $28.8 billion, a figure poised to climb further as penetration rates hit 90 percent among U.S. households. Linear TV, by contrast, still holds a majority stake in viewing hours—around 54 percent last year—but its decline is accelerating, with projections showing a drop to under 50 percent by year’s end. This divergence isn’t accidental. Viewers increasingly favor flexibility, binge-watching series at their leisure rather than adhering to prime-time slots. For advertisers, this means linear campaigns risk missing fragmented audiences, while CTV adapts to fragmented behaviors. The question isn’t just about viewership; it’s about how these shifts translate to tangible outcomes in brand lift and sales attribution.
Unpacking Ad Spend Dynamics
Delving into financial commitments provides a clearer picture of advertiser confidence. Global television advertising budgets are set to surpass $103 billion in 2025, a robust endorsement of the medium’s enduring power despite digital encroachments. However, the allocation tells a story of divergence. Linear TV continues to absorb the lion’s share—over 70 percent of TV-specific dollars—but CTV’s slice is expanding rapidly, fueled by ad-supported streaming tiers that now account for more than half of new subscriptions. Categories like consumer packaged goods and retail are leading the charge, outspending linear in CTV by notable margins, as brands chase measurable interactions over passive impressions.
This reallocation stems from structural efficiencies. Linear buys demand upfront commitments for fixed slots, often leading to overages in untargeted exposure. CTV, conversely, operates on programmatic principles, allowing real-time bidding and adjustments. Data from 2024 shows CTV campaigns achieving 32 percent greater total reach when layered atop linear efforts, underscoring a complementary rather than competitive dynamic. Yet, linear’s stability appeals to risk-averse marketers; its predictable scheduling ensures consistent frequency, particularly for awareness-driven goals. The analytics here are stark: While linear’s cost per thousand impressions (CPM) hovers in the mid-20s, CTV’s can dip below 15, reflecting economies of scale in targeted delivery. As budgets tighten amid economic uncertainties, these metrics tilt the scales toward CTV for efficiency-focused spenders.
Precision Targeting: The Core Differentiator
At the heart of the linear-CTV debate lies targeting capability, a metric where data reveals stark contrasts. Linear TV’s approach is blunt—instrument: Advertisers segment by demographics like age or region, but granularity ends there. A national spot during a evening news broadcast might reach millions, yet much of that audience falls outside the ideal buyer profile, resulting in diluted impact. Studies indicate that such broad strokes yield engagement rates below 2 percent for non-primetime slots, as viewers multitask or fast-forward through commercials.
CTV flips this script with IP-based addressing and behavioral data, enabling hyper-specific campaigns. Imagine serving ads for eco-friendly appliances to households that recently streamed documentaries on sustainability—such precision drives view-through rates up to 15 percent higher than linear equivalents. Moreover, CTV’s integration with cross-device tracking allows for sequential messaging, where an initial impression on a smart TV prompts retargeting on mobile. This isn’t hype; metrics from 2025 campaigns show CTV reducing audience waste by 40 percent compared to linear’s scattershot method. The trade-off? CTV’s walled gardens—proprietary platforms like those from major streamers—can complicate unified measurement, sometimes inflating self-reported metrics. Still, for performance marketers prioritizing conversion over volume, the data favors CTV’s surgical strikes.
ROI Under the Microscope: Hard Numbers on Returns
Return on investment serves as the ultimate arbiter, and here, quantitative analysis exposes linear’s vulnerabilities. Traditional TV excels in upper-funnel metrics like brand recall, where exposure volume translates to 41.5 percent of short-term media-driven sales in mature markets. A well-placed linear ad during high-viewership events can spike unaided awareness by 20-30 points, a feat CTV struggles to match at scale due to its opt-in nature. However, when drilling into cost efficiency, CTV pulls ahead decisively: Campaigns on connected platforms deliver 23 percent higher ROI than their linear counterparts, per aggregated 2025 benchmarks. This stems from lower entry barriers—CTV spots cost 20-30 percent less on average—and superior attribution tools that link views to downstream actions like website visits.
To illustrate, consider a mid-sized retailer’s 2024 test: A $1 million linear buy generated $2.8 million in attributable revenue, yielding a 1.8x ROI. The same budget shifted to CTV? A 2.2x return, with 15 percent more conversions traced directly to ad exposure. These figures aren’t outliers; they reflect CTV’s edge in lower-funnel accountability, where real-time dashboards replace linear’s delayed, estimate-based reporting. That said, linear retains an advantage in trust signals—viewers perceive broadcast ads as more credible, boosting long-term equity. For industries like pharmaceuticals or automotive, where regulatory scrutiny demands broad, verifiable reach, linear’s ROI holds steady. The analytical takeaway: CTV optimizes for agility and precision, while linear anchors for scale and sentiment.
Harmonizing Models: The Rise of Integrated Campaigns
No discussion of superiority is complete without examining convergence. Data increasingly points to hybrid approaches as the optimal path, blending linear’s mass appeal with CTV’s finesse. Advertisers layering the two report 25-35 percent uplift in overall campaign lift, as linear builds initial awareness and CTV nurtures intent. In 2025, over 60 percent of TV budgets incorporate cross-platform planning, enabled by unified measurement frameworks that reconcile disparate data streams. This isn’t fusion for fusion’s sake; it’s a data-backed response to viewer fluidity, where 70 percent of audiences toggle between linear and streaming weekly.
Take a CPG brand’s playbook: Prime-time linear slots seed product curiosity, followed by CTV retargeting to drive e-commerce traffic. Metrics show this duo reducing effective CPMs by 18 percent while elevating purchase intent by 28 points. Challenges persist—legacy systems lag in cross-channel attribution, leading to siloed insights—but advancements in AI-driven analytics are bridging the gap. For advertisers, the hybrid model democratizes access, allowing smaller players to punch above their weight without linear’s prohibitive upfront costs.
Metrics of Momentum: Charting Tomorrow’s TV Terrain
As we peer into the horizon, the trajectory favors CTV’s ascent, but linear’s resilience ensures a dual ecosystem. By 2026, CTV could claim half of all TV ad dollars, propelled by ad-tiered streaming’s dominance and regulatory pushes for transparent measurement. Yet, linear will evolve, incorporating addressable tech to mimic CTV’s targeting within broadcast windows. The discerning advertiser will leverage data dashboards to pivot dynamically—allocating 40 percent to linear for reach, 60 to CTV for conversion, adjusted quarterly based on performance signals.
In this analytics-driven arena, “best” isn’t binary; it’s contextual. For broad-scale branding, linear endures. For targeted, accountable growth, CTV commands. The winners? Those who interrogate the numbers, test relentlessly, and adapt without nostalgia. Television advertising, in its linear and connected forms, remains a $100-billion juggernaut—poised for those who master its metrics.
